Jong AZ 0-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as Jong AZ welcome FC OSS to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 1D 6L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Jong AZ) versus 0.90 (FC OSS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Jong AZ, 2 for FC OSS and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 63% versus FC OSS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 67% | FC OSS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.51 xG and FC OSS 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.859 / defence 1.097 | FC OSS attack 0.858 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.482. Data: 54 Jong AZ games / 54 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 40% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 35%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | FC OSS 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 30% | FC OSS 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 24 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 40% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Jong AZ 1.51 / FC OSS 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.859 / def 1.097 | FC OSS attack 0.858 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.40
FC OSS xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 24 November 2025 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Jong AZ 0 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC OSS part of?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 40% chance of winning, FC OSS a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jong AZ and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Record (8 meetings): Jong AZ 3W | Draws 3 | FC OSS 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. FC OSS (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.86x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
40%
2.49
25%
4.05
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.91
1.40
FC OSS xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.40 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 19W 12D 23L from 54 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 21D 22L across 54 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.28 PPG, FC OSS on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 8W 6D 13L from 27 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 1W 14D 12L across 27 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.93 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 19W 12D 23L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 21D 22L in their last 54 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC OSS away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.11 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, FC OSS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 63%, FC OSS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Jong AZ) and 37% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 26% of games; FC OSS in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jong AZ's games and 48% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Jong AZ's recent games and 37% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Jong AZ 0-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.51 xG and FC OSS 1.40 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.86 / defence 1.10 against FC OSS attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 40% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 35%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 67%, FC OSS 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.28 PPG, FC OSS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.