Jong AZ 2-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Almere City FC at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 0.87 xG and Almere City FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Almere City FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.888 / away 1.259. Data: 0 Jong AZ games / 0 Almere City FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 22% | Draw 37% | Almere City FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 4.55 | Draw 2.70 | Almere City FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 22% | Draw 37% | Almere City FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Jong AZ 0.87 / Almere City FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Almere City FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.888 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Almere City FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Almere City FC kick off?
Jong AZ vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 9 August 2021 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Almere City FC?
Jong AZ 2 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Jong AZ vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Almere City FC part of?
Jong AZ vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 22% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 41% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jong AZ and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and Almere City FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
22%
4.51
37%
2.69
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.10
1.23
Almere City FC xG
4.51
22%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
6%
15.42
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.1 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.23 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Pre-Season
Almere City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and Almere City FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Jong AZ won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
0
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, Almere City FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Jong AZ 3-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Almere City FC?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Almere City FC 2-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 0.87 xG and Almere City FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 22% | Draw 37% | Almere City FC 41%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Jong AZ win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.