Jong Ajax 1-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Willem II make the trip to Sportpark De Toekomst to face Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 31 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Ajax have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Ajax have posted 5W 4D 1L at Sportpark De Toekomst — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Willem II have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Jong Ajax, 1.80 for Willem II — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jong Ajax register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Willem II in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Willem II — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 76% and Willem II 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 65% | Willem II 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.97 xG and Willem II 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.127 / defence 0.831 | Willem II attack 1.165 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.326. Data: 50 Jong Ajax games / 12 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 22% | Willem II 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Willem II 4.00. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Ajax as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 31 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 22% | Willem II 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Jong Ajax 1.97 / Willem II 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.127 / def 0.831 | Willem II attack 1.165 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Willem II xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Willem II kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 31 October 2022 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Jong Ajax 1 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Willem II part of?
Jong Ajax vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 53% chance of winning, Willem II a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jong Ajax and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Ajax and Willem II in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (1.13) and Willem II's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.17x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
53%
1.87
22%
4.58
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.26
1.28
Willem II xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
3%
29.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.28 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Ajax come into this having played 46 games, going 21W 13D 12L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.13 PPG from 46 outings (14W 10D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Willem II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong Ajax's home form reads 15W 6D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Jong Ajax are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 0.74 points per game from 23 outings (4W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.09 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 21W 13D 12L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while Willem II have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Willem II away?
Jong Ajax's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.22 PPG; Willem II away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Jong Ajax 2-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Jong Ajax, 56% for Willem II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Jong Ajax and 61% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Jong Ajax's games and 56% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Jong Ajax's matches and 61% of Willem II's.
Do Jong Ajax and Willem II tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Willem II in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Jong Ajax 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Jong Ajax 1-2 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.97 xG and Willem II 1.28 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.13 / defence 0.83 against Willem II attack 1.17 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 22% | Willem II 25%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Willem II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 65%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Willem II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.