Heracles vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heracles and FC Volendam meet at Asito Stadium in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Heracles's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 5W 2D 3L at Asito Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Asito Stadium this season.
FC Volendam (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Heracles. A 0.90 PPG lead over FC Volendam (2.50 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Heracles, 2 for FC Volendam and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with FC Volendam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 53% versus FC Volendam 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 73% | FC Volendam 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 3.24 xG and FC Volendam 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.370 / defence 0.797 | FC Volendam attack 0.824 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — their λ of 3.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Heracles's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 11 Heracles games / 11 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 81% | Draw 11% | FC Volendam 7%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.23 | Draw 9.09 | FC Volendam 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
FC Volendam lead the H2H ledger, but Heracles carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.20 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 40% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 81% | Draw 11% | FC Volendam 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 59% | xG Heracles 3.24 / FC Volendam 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.370 / def 0.797 | FC Volendam attack 0.824 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Heracles (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.24
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
0.96
FC Volendam xG
59%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs FC Volendam kick off?
Heracles vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 December 2026 at Asito Stadium.
Where is Heracles vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs FC Volendam part of?
Heracles vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 81% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 7% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Heracles and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 2 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are Heracles and FC Volendam in?
Heracles (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Heracles's attack rating (1.37) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 3.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.82x) against Heracles's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
81%
1.23
11%
8.85
7%
13.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.24
Heracles xG
Total xG
4.20
0.96
FC Volendam xG
1.23
81%
Home win
8.85
11%
Draw
13.35
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
4%
25.61
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Heracles and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 3.24 expected goals for Heracles and 0.96 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 4.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heracles's recent record stands at 14W 5D 26L from 45 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 24L across 45 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Heracles against 1.09 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 9W 3D 10L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 3W 2D 17L across 22 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heracles are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.29 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 14W 5D 26L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 7D 24L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or FC Volendam away?
Heracles's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.36 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 3-0 on 25 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Heracles
2
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, FC Volendam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Heracles 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 50%, FC Volendam 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Heracles and 54% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 32% of games; FC Volendam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Heracles's recent matches and 46% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Heracles's matches and 54% of FC Volendam's.
Do Heracles and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.