Heracles 3-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Erve Asito plays host to Heracles versus FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 21 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Heracles's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Erve Asito, Heracles have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Erve Asito this season.
FC Eindhoven have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Heracles have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Eindhoven in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 47% versus FC Eindhoven 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 53% | FC Eindhoven 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.66 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.342 / defence 1.139 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.898 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.366. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Heracles games / 49 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 44% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 32%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | FC Eindhoven 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 70% | FC Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 44% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Heracles 1.66 / FC Eindhoven 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.342 / def 1.139 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.898 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Heracles (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.40
FC Eindhoven xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Heracles vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs FC Eindhoven?
Heracles 3 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Heracles vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Heracles vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 44% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Heracles and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and FC Eindhoven in?
Heracles (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Heracles's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.90x) against Heracles's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
44%
2.29
24%
4.19
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.05
1.40
FC Eindhoven xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Heracles and 1.40 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Heracles's recent record stands at 17W 8D 22L from 47 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 10L across 47 games — 1.85 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Eindhoven by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 11W 6D 6L from 23 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 10W 7D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.79 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 17W 8D 22L in their last 47 games (1.26 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 25W 12D 10L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Heracles's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.70 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Heracles or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Heracles
0
Draws
1
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and FC Eindhoven?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when FC Eindhoven 1-0 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, FC Eindhoven 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Heracles) and 39% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 30%; FC Eindhoven in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Heracles's recent matches and 48% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Heracles's recent games and 39% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat FC Eindhoven 3-0 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.66 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.40 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.34 / defence 1.14 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.90 / defence 0.75, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 44% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 32%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 53%, FC Eindhoven 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.