Heracles 1-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Almere City FC at Erve Asito in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 31 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Erve Asito, Heracles have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Heracles 2.20 PPG, Almere City FC 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Heracles, 1 for Almere City FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 50% versus Almere City FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 59% | Almere City FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.46 xG and Almere City FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.524 / defence 0.976 | Almere City FC attack 1.006 / defence 0.562. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.312. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.524 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.562 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Heracles games / 67 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 41% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Almere City FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Heracles 50% | Almere City FC 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 41% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Heracles 1.46 / Almere City FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.524 / def 0.976 | Almere City FC attack 1.006 / def 0.562 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Heracles (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Almere City FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Almere City FC kick off?
Heracles vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 March 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Almere City FC?
Heracles 1 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Heracles vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Almere City FC part of?
Heracles vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 41% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Heracles and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Almere City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Heracles and Almere City FC in?
Heracles (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Heracles's attack rating (1.52) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.56), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
41%
2.43
25%
3.93
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.75
1.29
Almere City FC xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Heracles and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Heracles and 1.29 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles's recent record stands at 30W 10D 26L from 66 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 27L across 66 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.52 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 19W 7D 7L from 33 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 15W 5D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 30W 10D 26L in their last 66 games (1.52 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 27W 12D 27L in their last 66 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Almere City FC away?
Heracles's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.94 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Heracles or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and Almere City FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Heracles won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Heracles
3
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Almere City FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Almere City FC 0-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Almere City FC?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 54%, Almere City FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Heracles) and 54% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Heracles's recent matches and 52% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Heracles's matches and 54% of Almere City FC's.
Do Heracles and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 31, as Heracles and Almere City FC drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.46 xG and Almere City FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.52 / defence 0.98 against Almere City FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.56, drawn from 30/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 41% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 33%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 59%, Almere City FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.52 PPG, Almere City FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.