Helmond Sport 1-2 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees FC OSS travel to GS Staalwerken Stadion to take on Helmond Sport. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 September 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 3W 1D 6L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FC OSS — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Helmond Sport 1.00 PPG, FC OSS 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Helmond Sport have won 0, FC OSS 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 1–3 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Helmond Sport trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC OSS trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 50% versus FC OSS 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 61% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.80 xG and FC OSS 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.926 / defence 1.032 | FC OSS attack 0.910 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.373. Data: 46 Helmond Sport games / 46 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 49% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 27%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 3.70. Helmond Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Helmond Sport 50% | FC OSS 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 49% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Helmond Sport 1.80 / FC OSS 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.926 / def 1.032 | FC OSS attack 0.910 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC OSS xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs FC OSS kick off?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 September 2022 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Helmond Sport 1 - 2 FC OSS.
Where is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS part of?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 49% chance of winning, FC OSS a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Helmond Sport and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
Record (2 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Helmond Sport and FC OSS in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.93) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.09
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.09
1.29
FC OSS xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
4%
22.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.29 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport come into this having played 46 games, going 10W 7D 29L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.04 PPG from 46 outings (13W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 0.80 PPG, FC OSS on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helmond Sport's home form reads 6W 4D 13L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (6W 3D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.26 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 10W 7D 29L in their last 46 games (0.80 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 13W 9D 24L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or FC OSS away?
Helmond Sport's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 0.96 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
5
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, FC OSS have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 56%, FC OSS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Helmond Sport and 65% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport have failed to score in 26% of games; FC OSS in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 52% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Helmond Sport's matches and 65% of FC OSS's.
Do Helmond Sport and FC OSS tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Helmond Sport 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Helmond Sport 1-2 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.80 xG and FC OSS 1.29 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against FC OSS attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 49% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 27%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 61%, FC OSS 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 0.80 PPG, FC OSS 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.