Helmond Sport 2-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as Helmond Sport welcome Den Bosch to GS Staalwerken Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport at GS Staalwerken Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at GS Staalwerken Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Helmond Sport) versus 1.10 (Den Bosch). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Helmond Sport, 3 for Den Bosch and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Den Bosch winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 64% versus Den Bosch 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 65% | Den Bosch 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.83 xG and Den Bosch 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.924 / defence 1.057 | Den Bosch attack 0.964 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.534. Data: 63 Helmond Sport games / 63 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 43% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 32%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Den Bosch 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helmond Sport are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 80% | Den Bosch 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 43% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Helmond Sport 1.83 / Den Bosch 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.924 / def 1.057 | Den Bosch attack 0.964 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Den Bosch xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 February 2026 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Helmond Sport 2 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch part of?
Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 43% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Helmond Sport and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch?
Record (9 meetings): Helmond Sport 3W | Draws 3 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.92x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.92
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.40
1.56
Den Bosch xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
5%
19.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.56 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 19W 15D 29L from 63 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 24L across 63 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 1.14 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 13W 8D 10L from 31 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 9W 6D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.46 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 19W 15D 29L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 24W 15D 24L in their last 63 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Den Bosch away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.52 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Helmond Sport
3
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Helmond Sport 2-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 68%, Den Bosch 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Helmond Sport and 71% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Helmond Sport's games and 58% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Helmond Sport's matches and 71% of Den Bosch's.
Do Helmond Sport and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Den Bosch 2-0 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.83 xG and Den Bosch 1.56 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Den Bosch attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 43% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 32%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 65%, Den Bosch 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.14 PPG, Den Bosch 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.