FC Volendam 3-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 35 as FC Volendam welcome Jong Ajax to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong Ajax — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jong Ajax away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Volendam 1.30 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Volendam, 0 for Jong Ajax and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 8.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 71% and Jong Ajax 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 68% | Jong Ajax 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.14 xG and Jong Ajax 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.287 / defence 1.280 | Jong Ajax attack 0.977 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.448. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 FC Volendam games / 34 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 46% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.17 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Ajax 3.03. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | Jong Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 46% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG FC Volendam 2.14 / Jong Ajax 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.287 / def 1.280 | Jong Ajax attack 0.977 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Jong Ajax xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax kick off?
FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax?
FC Volendam 3 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax part of?
FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 46% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 33% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both FC Volendam and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong Ajax?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Jong Ajax in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.29) and Jong Ajax's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
46%
2.18
21%
4.80
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.95
1.81
Jong Ajax xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.83
Clean Sheet
16%
6.11
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
8%
13.31
4%
25.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.81 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 19W 11D 4L from 34 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Jong Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 9L across 34 games — 1.74 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 2.00 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 12W 2D 3L from 17 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Ajax's away record stands at 6W 5D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.18 scored and 1.68 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 79%.
Last 34 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
Jong Ajax
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 19W 11D 4L in their last 34 games (2.00 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 17W 8D 9L in their last 34 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Jong Ajax away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.24 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Jong Ajax runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Volendam have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2024, when FC Volendam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
1
Draws
0
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong Ajax?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Jong Ajax have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Jong Ajax 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Jong Ajax?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 76%, Jong Ajax at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for FC Volendam and 65% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of FC Volendam's games and 76% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of FC Volendam's matches and 65% of Jong Ajax's.
Do FC Volendam and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong Ajax 3-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.14 xG and Jong Ajax 1.81 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.29 / defence 1.28 against Jong Ajax attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 46% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 33%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, Jong Ajax 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 2.00 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.