FC Volendam 3-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Helmond Sport meet at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC Volendam have posted 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Helmond Sport (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in FC Volendam's favour (2.20 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FC Volendam's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) — FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Helmond Sport in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for FC Volendam, 0 for Helmond Sport and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended FC Volendam 3–2 Helmond Sport — a FC Volendam win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 66% and Helmond Sport 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 72% | Helmond Sport 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.25 xG and Helmond Sport 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.224 / defence 0.910 | Helmond Sport attack 0.886 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.308. Data: built from FC Volendam's last 27 games and Helmond Sport's last 65.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 64% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.56 | Draw 4.97 | Helmond Sport 6.27. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Volendam's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Volendam 60% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 28 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 64% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG FC Volendam 2.25 / Helmond Sport 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.224 / def 0.910 | Helmond Sport attack 0.886 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Helmond Sport xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport kick off?
FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
FC Volendam 3 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport part of?
FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 64% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Volendam and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.22x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.89x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from FC Volendam's last 27 games and Helmond Sport's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.97
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.31
1.05
Helmond Sport xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
59.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.05 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 21W 11D 29L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Helmond Sport's form line: 23W 15D 23L from 61 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.38 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 30 home games (13W 2D 15L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 9W 7D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.39 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Helmond Sport in 61%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
FC Volendam (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Volendam
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 21W 11D 29L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 23W 15D 23L in their last 61 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Helmond Sport away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.37 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won FC Volendam 4-1 Helmond Sport on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
FC Volendam
1
Draws
0
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Volendam have won 4, Helmond Sport have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Helmond Sport 2-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 50%, Helmond Sport 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Volendam and 60% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 27% of games; Helmond Sport in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Volendam and Helmond Sport matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 57% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 60% of Helmond Sport's.
Do FC Volendam and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 73% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Helmond Sport 3-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.25 xG and Helmond Sport 1.05 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.22 / defence 0.91 against Helmond Sport attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 64% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 16%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, Helmond Sport 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.21 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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