FC OSS 4-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 38%, yet in-form FC OSS provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Jong Utrecht at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Frans Heesen Stadion this season.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC OSS are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC OSS register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Jong Utrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC OSS, 1 for Jong Utrecht and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Jong Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 62% versus Jong Utrecht 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 62% | Jong Utrecht 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.23 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.887 / defence 1.158 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.771 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.448. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 FC OSS games / 27 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 35% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 38%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Jong Utrecht 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 70% | Jong Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 35% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG FC OSS 1.23 / Jong Utrecht 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.887 / def 1.158 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.771 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Jong Utrecht xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht?
FC OSS 4 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht part of?
FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 35% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC OSS and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are FC OSS and Jong Utrecht in?
FC OSS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.69
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.52
1.29
Jong Utrecht xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.29 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS's recent record stands at 7W 6D 13L from 26 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 14L across 26 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.04 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 4W 4D 5L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 4W 4D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.12 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 7W 6D 13L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 4D 14L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Jong Utrecht away?
FC OSS's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.23 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Jong Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when FC OSS won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC OSS
3
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when FC OSS 3-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Jong Utrecht?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC OSS at 69%, Jong Utrecht at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for FC OSS and 62% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of FC OSS's games and 62% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of FC OSS's matches and 62% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do FC OSS and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC OSS run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Jong Utrecht 4-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.23 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.29 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 35% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 38%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 62%, Jong Utrecht 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.04 PPG, Jong Utrecht 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.