FC OSS 3-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 10 as FC OSS welcome Helmond Sport to Frans Heesen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS at Frans Heesen Stadion this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.20 PPG versus Helmond Sport's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 3, Helmond Sport 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC OSS trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 64% and Helmond Sport 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 64% | Helmond Sport 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 2.42 xG and Helmond Sport 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.104 / defence 0.884 | Helmond Sport attack 0.739 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.954 / away 1.475. Data: 47 FC OSS games / 47 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 70% | Draw 17% | Helmond Sport 13%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Helmond Sport 7.69. The model has a clear lean to FC OSS (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | Helmond Sport 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 70% | Draw 17% | Helmond Sport 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 56% | xG FC OSS 2.42 / Helmond Sport 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.104 / def 0.884 | Helmond Sport attack 0.739 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.954 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Helmond Sport xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Helmond Sport kick off?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
FC OSS 3 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport part of?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 70% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC OSS and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
Record (9 meetings): FC OSS 3W | Draws 4 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are FC OSS and Helmond Sport in?
FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 1.10x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
70%
1.44
17%
5.79
13%
7.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.39
0.96
Helmond Sport xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.79
17%
Draw
7.58
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
9%
11.29
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
1%
85.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for FC OSS and 0.96 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, FC OSS have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 14W 11D 22L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 12W 12D 23L from 47 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.13 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (9W 3D 11L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 4D 17L from 23 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.21 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Helmond Sport away?
FC OSS's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.30 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Helmond Sport runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC OSS
4
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 4, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when FC OSS 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 70%, Helmond Sport 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for FC OSS and 48% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC OSS's games and 44% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of FC OSS's matches and 48% of Helmond Sport's.
Do FC OSS and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Helmond Sport 3-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 2.42 xG and Helmond Sport 0.96 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.10 / defence 0.88 against Helmond Sport attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 70% | Draw 17% | Helmond Sport 13%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 64%, Helmond Sport 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.13 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.