FC Eindhoven 0-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 36%, yet in-form FC Eindhoven provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Eindhoven vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven and Roda meet at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Roda have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. FC Eindhoven's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Roda's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Eindhoven lead 1W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2024, ended 0–3 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Roda — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 49% versus Roda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 47% | Roda 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.22 xG and Roda 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.773 / defence 0.936 | Roda attack 0.969 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.408. FC Eindhoven's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 FC Eindhoven games / 45 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 33% | Draw 31% | Roda 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Roda 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Eindhoven (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 30% | Roda 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 33% | Draw 31% | Roda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.22 / Roda 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.773 / def 0.936 | Roda attack 0.969 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Roda (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Roda xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Roda kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 0 Roda.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Roda part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 33% chance of winning, Roda a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 3 | Roda 2W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Roda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.77x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.97x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
33%
3.01
31%
3.26
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.49
1.28
Roda xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.28 for Roda, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 12W 18D 15L from 45 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 9L across 45 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Eindhoven heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 5W 9D 8L from 22 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 7W 10D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.56 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 12W 18D 15L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Roda have gone 21W 15D 9L in their last 45 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.09 PPG; Roda away: 1.41 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Roda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
5
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Roda have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 46%, Roda 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC Eindhoven) and 41% (Roda).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 36% of games; Roda in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 64% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 41% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and Roda tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Roda in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Eindhoven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as FC Eindhoven and Roda drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.22 xG and Roda 1.28 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Roda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.77 / defence 0.94 against Roda attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 33% | Draw 31% | Roda 36%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 47%, Roda 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Roda's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.