FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam meet at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Eindhoven haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Eindhoven's home record at Jan Louwers Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Volendam's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FC Eindhoven's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FC Eindhoven 0W, FC Volendam 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2025, ended 1–3 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 50% versus FC Volendam 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 67% | FC Volendam 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.98 xG and FC Volendam 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.009 / defence 0.999 | FC Volendam attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.421. Data: 38 FC Eindhoven games / 0 FC Volendam games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 55% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | FC Volendam 4.35. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
FC Volendam lead the H2H ledger, but FC Eindhoven carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 50% | FC Volendam 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 55% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.98 / FC Volendam 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.009 / def 0.999 | FC Volendam attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.21
FC Volendam xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam part of?
FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 55% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 2 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.85x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.61
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.19
1.21
FC Volendam xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
3%
31.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.21 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 5D 19L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. FC Eindhoven haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 0.97 PPG from 36 outings (9W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. FC Volendam haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 0.97 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 8W 3D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (3W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.06 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Pre-Season
FC Volendam
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 12W 5D 19L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 9W 8D 19L in their last 36 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-1 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 0, FC Volendam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 50%, FC Volendam 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Eindhoven and 56% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 44% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 56% of FC Volendam's.
Do FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.