FC Eindhoven 0-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Dordrecht at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dordrecht — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Eindhoven at 1.20 PPG versus Dordrecht's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Dordrecht 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 51% versus Dordrecht 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 46% | Dordrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.38 xG and Dordrecht 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.852 / defence 1.096 | Dordrecht attack 1.132 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.300. Data: 43 FC Eindhoven games / 42 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 30% | Draw 30% | Dordrecht 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Dordrecht 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 30% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 30% | Draw 30% | Dordrecht 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.38 / Dordrecht 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.852 / def 1.096 | Dordrecht attack 1.132 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Dordrecht xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 30% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
Record (6 meetings): FC Eindhoven 2W | Draws 3 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.85x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
30%
3.36
30%
3.30
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.99
1.61
Dordrecht xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
6%
16.86
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.61 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 17D 15L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.77 PPG from 43 outings (20W 16D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 5W 8D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (8W 9D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.86 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 11W 17D 15L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 20W 16D 7L in their last 43 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.10 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.57 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2021, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
6
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, Dordrecht have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Dordrecht 3-4 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 48%, Dordrecht 81% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Eindhoven) and 67% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of FC Eindhoven's games and 81% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 67% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Eindhoven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.38 xG and Dordrecht 1.61 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Dordrecht landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Dordrecht attack 1.13 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 30% | Draw 30% | Dordrecht 40%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 46%, Dordrecht 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dordrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.