Excelsior 2-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host NAC Breda at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Excelsior at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Excelsior 1.60 PPG, NAC Breda 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Excelsior have won 0, NAC Breda 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 60% versus NAC Breda 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 68% | NAC Breda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 2.18 xG and NAC Breda 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.345 / defence 1.279 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.452. Excelsior carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Excelsior games / 37 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 52% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 28%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | NAC Breda 3.57. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 50% | NAC Breda 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 52% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG Excelsior 2.18 / NAC Breda 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.345 / def 1.279 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.58
NAC Breda xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs NAC Breda kick off?
Excelsior vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Excelsior 2 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is Excelsior vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs NAC Breda part of?
Excelsior vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 52% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Excelsior and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Excelsior and NAC Breda in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 1.34x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
52%
1.94
21%
4.87
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.76
1.58
NAC Breda xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
11%
8.87
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
3%
31.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.58 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior's recent record stands at 19W 8D 10L from 37 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 11L across 37 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.76 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 9W 4D 5L from 18 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 6W 3D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.57 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 19W 8D 10L in their last 37 games (1.76 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 16W 10D 11L in their last 37 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or NAC Breda away?
Excelsior's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.72 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Excelsior or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Excelsior go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when NAC Breda 0-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and NAC Breda?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 56%, NAC Breda 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Excelsior and 56% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; NAC Breda in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Excelsior's recent matches and 44% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Excelsior's matches and 56% of NAC Breda's.
Do Excelsior and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior and NAC Breda finished level at 2-2 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.18 xG and NAC Breda 1.58 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.34 / defence 1.28 against NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.28, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 52% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 28%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 68%, NAC Breda 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.76 PPG, NAC Breda 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.