Excelsior 1-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Excelsior (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Excelsior face Helmond Sport.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Helmond Sport make the trip to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to face Excelsior in Eerste Divisie (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 16 February 2025 at 15:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Excelsior's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Excelsior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Helmond Sport (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Excelsior's favour (1.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Excelsior have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Helmond Sport managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Excelsior 1–0 Helmond Sport — a Excelsior win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Excelsior and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 60% and Helmond Sport 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 69% | Helmond Sport 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.71 xG and Helmond Sport 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.886 / defence 0.862 | Helmond Sport attack 0.920 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.246. Data: built from Excelsior's last 25 games and Helmond Sport's last 62.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 54% | Draw 24% | Helmond Sport 22%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.84 | Draw 4.15 | Helmond Sport 4.63. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Excelsior's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Excelsior 30% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 26 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 54% | Draw 24% | Helmond Sport 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Excelsior 1.71 / Helmond Sport 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.886 / def 0.862 | Helmond Sport attack 0.920 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Helmond Sport xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Excelsior vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does Excelsior vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Excelsior vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Helmond Sport?
Excelsior 1 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is Excelsior vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Helmond Sport part of?
Excelsior vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 54% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Excelsior and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Excelsior vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Helmond Sport's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.92x) against Excelsior's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Excelsior's last 25 games and Helmond Sport's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.15
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.70
0.99
Helmond Sport xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
4%
25.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Excelsior vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Excelsior and 0.99 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Excelsior come into this having played 62 games, going 21W 17D 24L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Helmond Sport sit at 1.39 PPG from 62 outings (24W 14D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Excelsior against 1.39 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Excelsior's home form reads 15W 8D 8L across their last 31 home games, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Helmond Sport have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.37 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport in 61%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
Excelsior (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Excelsior
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Excelsior vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are Excelsior and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 21W 17D 24L in their last 62 games (1.29 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 24W 14D 24L in their last 62 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Helmond Sport away?
Excelsior's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.71 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Excelsior and Helmond Sport, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won Helmond Sport 1-5 Excelsior on 19 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
0
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Excelsior vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Helmond Sport?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Excelsior have won 3, Helmond Sport have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2025: Excelsior 1-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Helmond Sport?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 55%, Helmond Sport 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Excelsior and 64% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Excelsior vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Excelsior and Helmond Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Excelsior's games and 58% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Excelsior and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Excelsior's matches and 64% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Excelsior and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Excelsior's recent matches and 77% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior and Helmond Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior and Helmond Sport finished level at 1-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.71 xG and Helmond Sport 0.99 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against Helmond Sport attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 25/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 54% | Draw 24% | Helmond Sport 22%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 69%, Helmond Sport 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.29 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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