Excelsior 3-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 37%, yet in-form Excelsior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Excelsior vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Dordrecht travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 September 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 3W 1D 1L from 5 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht — All Games: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 60% and Dordrecht 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 60% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.16 xG and Dordrecht 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.752 / defence 1.106 | Dordrecht attack 0.774 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.386. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Excelsior games / 5 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 35% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 37%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Dordrecht 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Excelsior 60% | Dordrecht 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 35% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Excelsior 1.16 / Dordrecht 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.752 / def 1.106 | Dordrecht attack 0.774 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Dordrecht xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Dordrecht kick off?
Excelsior vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Dordrecht?
Excelsior 3 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Excelsior vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Dordrecht part of?
Excelsior vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 35% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Excelsior and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and Dordrecht in?
Excelsior (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.75x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.57
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.35
1.19
Dordrecht xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.19 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 1D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and Dordrecht runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Excelsior's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Excelsior
2
Draws
0
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Dordrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 2, Dordrecht have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Excelsior 1-0 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Dordrecht?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 60%, Dordrecht 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Excelsior and 60% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Excelsior's games and 60% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Excelsior's matches and 60% of Dordrecht's.
Do Excelsior and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Dordrecht 3-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.16 xG and Dordrecht 1.19 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.75 / defence 1.11 against Dordrecht attack 0.77 / defence 1.29, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 35% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 37%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 60%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Excelsior scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.