Emmen 2-3 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 21 as Emmen welcome NAC Breda to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
NAC Breda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Emmen) versus 1.70 (NAC Breda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Emmen have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 5 past contests while NAC Breda have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Emmen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Emmen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
NAC Breda trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 55% and NAC Breda 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 55% | NAC Breda 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.26 xG and NAC Breda 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.832 / defence 0.982 | NAC Breda attack 1.291 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.426. NAC Breda have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Emmen games / 58 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 25% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 49%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | NAC Breda 2.04. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 50% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 25% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Emmen 1.26 / NAC Breda 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.832 / def 0.982 | NAC Breda attack 1.291 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.81
NAC Breda xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs NAC Breda kick off?
Emmen vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Emmen 2 - 3 NAC Breda.
Where is Emmen vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs NAC Breda part of?
Emmen vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 25% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Emmen and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Record (5 meetings): Emmen 5W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in?
Emmen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
25%
3.94
26%
3.91
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.07
1.81
NAC Breda xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
4%
24.01
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Emmen and 1.81 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 17W 15D 26L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 26W 9D 23L from 58 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.14 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (9W 10D 9L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 12W 3D 13L from 28 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.74 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 72%.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 17W 15D 26L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 26W 9D 23L in their last 58 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.32 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 43%, NAC Breda 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Emmen and 79% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Emmen's games and 71% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Emmen's matches and 79% of NAC Breda's.
Do Emmen and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Emmen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Emmen 2-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.26 xG and NAC Breda 1.81 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against NAC Breda attack 1.29 / defence 0.93, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 25% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 49%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 55%, NAC Breda 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.14 PPG, NAC Breda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.