Emmen 7-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Oude Meerdijk plays host to Emmen versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 10 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Emmen have collected 0.80 PPG across 5 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 1D 3L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV (all games): 3W 0D 2L across 5 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. MVV are 1.00 PPG clear of Emmen in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 40% versus MVV 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 20% | MVV 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.04 xG and MVV 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.614 / defence 1.132 | MVV attack 0.668 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.386. Emmen's attack strength of 0.614 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.405 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Emmen games / 5 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 35% | Draw 30% | MVV 35%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | MVV 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 40% | MVV 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 35% | Draw 30% | MVV 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Emmen 1.04 / MVV 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.614 / def 1.132 | MVV attack 0.668 / def 1.405 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.05
MVV xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs MVV kick off?
Emmen vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs MVV?
Emmen 7 - 1 MVV.
Where is Emmen vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs MVV part of?
Emmen vs MVV is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 35% chance of winning, MVV a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Emmen and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and MVV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and MVV in?
Emmen (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. MVV (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.61x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.67x) against Emmen's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.32
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
MVV xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Emmen and 1.05 for MVV, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 2L across 5 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours MVV by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Emmen heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: MVV in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
MVV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and MVV in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while MVV have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Emmen or MVV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, MVV in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 7-1 on 10 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Emmen
2
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and MVV?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, MVV have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Emmen 2-1 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and MVV?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 40%, MVV 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Emmen) and 80% (MVV).
On the defensive side: MVV in 40%; Emmen have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Emmen's recent matches and 40% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Emmen's recent games and 80% of MVV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and MVV tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, MVV in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Emmen run riot with a 7-1 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat MVV 7-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.04 xG and MVV 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 6.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.61 / defence 1.13 against MVV attack 0.67 / defence 1.41, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 35% | Draw 30% | MVV 35%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 20%, MVV 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Emmen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Emmen scored 7 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm. MVV shipped 7 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.