Dordrecht 2-2 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vitesse travel to M-Scores Stadion to take on Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Dordrecht have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Vitesse have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Vitesse have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Dordrecht have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 61% and Vitesse 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 52% | Vitesse 59%). Note also that Vitesse surrender HT leads in 80% of cases while Dordrecht recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.02 xG and Vitesse 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.116 / defence 0.749 | Vitesse attack 0.969 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.476. Vitesse's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dordrecht's projected output up. Dordrecht have a tight defence (rating 0.749), which is pulling Vitesse's projected output down. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 48 games and Vitesse's last 10.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 57% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 17%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.75 | Draw 3.95 | Vitesse 5.73. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Vitesse's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 50% (last 10 home games) | Vitesse 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 10 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 57% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Dordrecht 2.02 / Vitesse 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.116 / def 0.749 | Vitesse attack 0.969 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Vitesse xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs Vitesse FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs Vitesse kick off?
Dordrecht vs Vitesse kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Vitesse?
Dordrecht 2 - 2 Vitesse.
Where is Dordrecht vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Vitesse part of?
Dordrecht vs Vitesse is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 10) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 57% chance of winning, Vitesse a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dordrecht and Vitesse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.12) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 48 games and Vitesse's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
57%
1.75
25%
3.95
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.09
1.07
Vitesse xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
2%
43.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs Vitesse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.07 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht come into this having played 44 games, going 21W 16D 7L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 0.77 PPG from 44 outings (8W 10D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dordrecht's home form reads 13W 6D 2L across their last 21 home games, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 0.76 points per game from their last 21 away games (5W 1D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.02 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
Dordrecht (Home) vs Vitesse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Dordrecht vs Vitesse Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 21W 16D 7L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 8W 10D 26L in their last 44 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Vitesse away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.14 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Vitesse in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 30 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Jan 2025, when Dordrecht won Vitesse 0-3 Dordrecht.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
2
Draws
0
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs Vitesse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Vitesse?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 2, Vitesse have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Vitesse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 January 2026: Vitesse 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Vitesse?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 48%, Vitesse 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Dordrecht) and 67% (Vitesse).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Vitesse in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs Vitesse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and Vitesse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 48% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dordrecht and Vitesse matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Dordrecht's recent games and 67% of Vitesse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and Vitesse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 76% of Vitesse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and Vitesse share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht and Vitesse finished level at 2-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.02 xG and Vitesse 1.07 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vitesse outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.12 / defence 0.75 against Vitesse attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 57% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 17%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 52%, Vitesse 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitesse's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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