Dordrecht 1-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Emmen at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at M-Scores Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dordrecht 1.60 PPG, Emmen 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 4, Emmen 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Emmen trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 54% versus Emmen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | Emmen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.12 xG and Emmen 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.024 / defence 0.998 | Emmen attack 0.805 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.490. Data: 64 Dordrecht games / 61 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 70% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Dordrecht 2.12 / Emmen 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.024 / def 0.998 | Emmen attack 0.805 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Emmen xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Emmen kick off?
Dordrecht vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Dordrecht 1 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Dordrecht vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Emmen part of?
Dordrecht vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 57% chance of winning, Emmen a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Dordrecht and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Record (9 meetings): Dordrecht 4W | Draws 1 | Emmen 4W.
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Emmen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.02) and Emmen's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.32
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.31
1.20
Emmen xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
12%
8.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
2%
42.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.20 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 30W 13D 18L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 25W 10D 26L from 61 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.69 PPG, Emmen on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.97 PPG from 30 outings (17W 8D 5L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 11W 3D 16L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.57 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 30W 13D 18L in their last 61 games (1.69 PPG), while Emmen have gone 25W 10D 26L in their last 61 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Emmen away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.97 PPG; Emmen away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Emmen in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
1
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 5, Emmen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 60%, Emmen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dordrecht and 60% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Emmen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 47% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dordrecht's matches and 60% of Emmen's.
Do Dordrecht and Emmen tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Emmen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Emmen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Emmen 1-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.12 xG and Emmen 1.20 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Emmen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Emmen attack 0.81 / defence 1.17, drawn from 64/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 62%, Emmen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Emmen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.69 PPG, Emmen 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.