Den Bosch 0-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 16 as Den Bosch welcome VVV Venlo to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 November 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 5W 0D 5L at Stadion De Vliert — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Den Bosch have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 1 for VVV Venlo and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
VVV Venlo trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 51% versus VVV Venlo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 62% | VVV Venlo 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.10 xG and VVV Venlo 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.092 / defence 1.057 | VVV Venlo attack 1.211 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.358. VVV Venlo have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Den Bosch games / 53 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 47% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 33%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.13 | Draw 4.76 | VVV Venlo 3.03. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.84 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | VVV Venlo 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 47% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Den Bosch 2.10 / VVV Venlo 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.092 / def 1.057 | VVV Venlo attack 1.211 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.74
VVV Venlo xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Den Bosch 0 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo part of?
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 47% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 33% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Den Bosch and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
Record (2 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.09x the league average against VVV Venlo's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
47%
2.15
21%
4.79
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.84
1.74
VVV Venlo xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.61
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
12%
8.16
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
4%
25.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.74 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 20W 6D 27L from 53 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 23L across 53 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.25 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 13W 1D 12L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 11W 3D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.36 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 20W 6D 27L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 20W 10D 23L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or VVV Venlo away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.54 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2023, when VVV Venlo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Den Bosch 0-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 50%, VVV Venlo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Den Bosch and 69% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 31% of games; VVV Venlo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 58% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Den Bosch's matches and 69% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Den Bosch and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Den Bosch 0-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.10 xG and VVV Venlo 1.74 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against VVV Venlo attack 1.21 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 47% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 33%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 62%, VVV Venlo 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.25 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.