Den Bosch 6-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong AZ at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Jong AZ travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 August 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch at Stadion De Vliert this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Jong AZ — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jong AZ are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Den Bosch, 1 for Jong AZ and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Jong AZ trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 49% versus Jong AZ 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 56% | Jong AZ 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.56 xG and Jong AZ 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.875 / defence 1.132 | Jong AZ attack 1.008 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.415. Data: 39 Den Bosch games / 39 Jong AZ games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 35% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 38%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Jong AZ 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 50% | Jong AZ 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 35% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Den Bosch 1.56 / Jong AZ 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.875 / def 1.132 | Jong AZ attack 1.008 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Jong AZ xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Den Bosch 6 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 35% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Record (6 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 3 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (0.88) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.66
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.17
1.61
Jong AZ xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
7%
14.28
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.61 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 8W 9D 22L from 39 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 14L across 39 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong AZ by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 3W 6D 10L from 19 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 4W 6D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.74 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 69%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 8W 9D 22L in their last 39 games (0.85 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 0.79 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
5
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Jong AZ have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 63%, Jong AZ at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Den Bosch and 74% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Den Bosch's games and 84% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Den Bosch's matches and 74% of Jong AZ's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong AZ 6-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.56 xG and Jong AZ 1.61 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Jong AZ attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 35% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 38%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, Jong AZ 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.