De Graafschap 0-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Telstar meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion De Vijverberg this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Telstar (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.30 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for De Graafschap, 0 for Telstar and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 58% versus Telstar 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 57% | Telstar 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.33 xG and Telstar 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.988 / defence 0.967 | Telstar attack 0.746 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.312. Data: 60 De Graafschap games / 60 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 28% | Telstar 27%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Telstar 3.70. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 50% | Telstar 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 28% | Telstar 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG De Graafschap 1.33 / Telstar 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.988 / def 0.967 | Telstar attack 0.746 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Telstar xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Telstar kick off?
De Graafschap vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Telstar?
De Graafschap 0 - 1 Telstar.
Where is De Graafschap vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Telstar part of?
De Graafschap vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 45% chance of winning, Telstar a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both De Graafschap and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Telstar?
Record (3 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 1 | Telstar 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and Telstar in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Telstar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.99) and Telstar's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.75x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.58
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.27
0.95
Telstar xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.95 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 21W 18D 21L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 15W 19D 26L from 60 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.07 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.21 PPG from 29 outings (8W 11D 10L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 6W 11D 12L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.17 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Telstar in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 21W 18D 21L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Telstar have gone 15W 19D 26L in their last 60 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Telstar away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.21 PPG; Telstar away: 1.00 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Telstar in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 5-1 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Telstar?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 59%, Telstar 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (De Graafschap) and 55% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of De Graafschap's games and 62% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of De Graafschap's recent games and 55% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Telstar tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Telstar in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat De Graafschap 0-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.33 xG and Telstar 0.95 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Telstar attack 0.75 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 45% | Draw 28% | Telstar 27%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Telstar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 57%, Telstar 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.35 PPG, Telstar 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.