De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates De Graafschap at 57% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Telstar meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 37). This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 May 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
De Graafschap's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Telstar (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Telstar away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for De Graafschap against 2.00 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours De Graafschap, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Telstar — Telstar have 1 win, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Oct 2024, ended De Graafschap 2–2 Telstar — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both De Graafschap and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 61% versus Telstar 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 65% | Telstar 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.89 xG and Telstar 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.184 / defence 0.721 | Telstar attack 1.116 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.241. De Graafschap have a tight defence (rating 0.721), which is pulling Telstar's projected output down. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 74 games and Telstar's last 74.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 57% | Draw 24% | Telstar 19%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.74 | Draw 4.18 | Telstar 5.33. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (De Graafschap 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (De Graafschap's last 10 home games and Telstar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 40% (last 10 home games) | Telstar 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 57% | Draw 24% | Telstar 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG De Graafschap 1.89 / Telstar 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.184 / def 0.721 | Telstar attack 1.116 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Telstar xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs Telstar FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs Telstar kick off?
De Graafschap vs Telstar kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 2 May 2025 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Telstar?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 Telstar.
Where is De Graafschap vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Telstar part of?
De Graafschap vs Telstar is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 37) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 57% chance of winning, Telstar a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both De Graafschap and Telstar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.18) and Telstar's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (1.12x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 74 games and Telstar's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.18
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.89
1.00
Telstar xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
3%
35.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs Telstar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.00 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 35W 14D 25L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Telstar's form line: 25W 18D 31L from 74 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.26 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.08 PPG from their last 37 home games (24W 5D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Telstar have gone 8W 7D 22L from their last 37 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Telstar's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.51 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
De Graafschap (Home) vs Telstar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ De Graafschap vs Telstar Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and Telstar in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 35W 14D 25L in their last 74 games (1.61 PPG), while Telstar have gone 25W 18D 31L in their last 74 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Telstar away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.08 PPG; Telstar away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 2 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won De Graafschap 5-1 Telstar on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs Telstar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Telstar?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 5, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Telstar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2025: De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Telstar?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 57%, Telstar 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (De Graafschap) and 51% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Telstar in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs Telstar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and Telstar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 51% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are De Graafschap and Telstar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of De Graafschap's matches and 51% of Telstar's.
Do De Graafschap and Telstar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 81% of Telstar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Telstar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Telstar 2-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.89 xG and Telstar 1.00 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.18 / defence 0.72 against Telstar attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 57% | Draw 24% | Telstar 19%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 65%, Telstar 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.61 PPG, Telstar 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eerste Divisie fixtures — matchday 37
All Eerste Divisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →