De Graafschap 0-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as De Graafschap welcome FC Eindhoven to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Stadion De Vijverberg this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vijverberg this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.60 (FC Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 50% versus FC Eindhoven 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 80% | FC Eindhoven 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.64 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.951 / defence 1.225 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.700 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.376. FC Eindhoven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 De Graafschap games / 10 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 48% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 27%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | FC Eindhoven 3.70. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 40% | FC Eindhoven 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 48% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG De Graafschap 1.64 / FC Eindhoven 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.951 / def 1.225 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.700 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Eindhoven xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 October 2021 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap 0 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 48% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.10
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.82
1.18
FC Eindhoven xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
5%
18.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.18 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 6W 1D 3L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.90 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.90 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Eindhoven's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC Eindhoven away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.40 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 0.60 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 40%, FC Eindhoven 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for De Graafschap and 40% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap have failed to score in 40% of games; FC Eindhoven in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 40% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of De Graafschap's matches and 40% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at De Graafschap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 11, as De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.64 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.18 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.95 / defence 1.23 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 48% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 27%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 80%, FC Eindhoven 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.90 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.