De Graafschap 2-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as De Graafschap face FC Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
De Graafschap welcome FC Eindhoven to Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Eindhoven stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
FC Eindhoven's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.90 (FC Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, De Graafschap have won 1, FC Eindhoven 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2023, ended De Graafschap 4–0 FC Eindhoven — a De Graafschap win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 55% versus FC Eindhoven 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | FC Eindhoven 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.06 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.860 / defence 0.738 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.017 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.331. FC Eindhoven bring a tight defence (rating 0.730, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling De Graafschap's projected output down. De Graafschap have a tight defence (rating 0.738), which is pulling FC Eindhoven's projected output down. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 49 games and FC Eindhoven's last 49.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 35% | Draw 33% | FC Eindhoven 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.85 | Draw 3.02 | FC Eindhoven 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Eindhoven 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 35% | Draw 33% | FC Eindhoven 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG De Graafschap 1.06 / FC Eindhoven 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.860 / def 0.738 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.017 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC Eindhoven xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 27 October 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 12) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 35% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 49 games and FC Eindhoven's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
35%
2.85
33%
3.02
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.06
1.00
FC Eindhoven xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.00 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 20W 9D 20L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 20W 15D 14L from 49 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.41 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 24 home games (12W 4D 8L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 8W 8D 8L from their last 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.41 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
De Graafschap (Home) vs FC Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 20W 9D 20L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 20W 15D 14L in their last 49 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC Eindhoven away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 3 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won FC Eindhoven 0-4 De Graafschap.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 5, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 October 2026: FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 42%, FC Eindhoven 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (De Graafschap) and 42% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 54% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of De Graafschap's recent games and 42% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 42% of FC Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out FC Eindhoven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.06 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.00 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.86 / defence 0.74 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.02 / defence 0.73, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 35% | Draw 33% | FC Eindhoven 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, FC Eindhoven 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.41 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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