Cambuur 0-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cambuur Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Friday 5 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cambuur's home record at Cambuur Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Cambuur, 1.50 for ADO Den Haag — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cambuur register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, ADO Den Haag in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambuur lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 58% and ADO Den Haag 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 70% | ADO Den Haag 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.65 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.017 / defence 1.412 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.154 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.350. Data: 32 Cambuur games / 70 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 29% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 50%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.45 | Draw 4.76 | ADO Den Haag 2.00. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 90% | ADO Den Haag 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 29% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Cambuur 1.65 / ADO Den Haag 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.017 / def 1.412 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.154 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.20
ADO Den Haag xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Cambuur 0 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 29% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 50% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Cambuur and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and ADO Den Haag?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 0W.
What form are Cambuur and ADO Den Haag in?
Cambuur (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.02x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.15x) against Cambuur's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 2.20.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
29%
3.49
21%
4.71
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.85
2.20
ADO Den Haag xG
3.49
29%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
11%
9.02
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
3%
31.45
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Cambuur and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.20 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur come into this having played 66 games, going 18W 10D 38L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.56 PPG from 66 outings (27W 22D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cambuur's home form reads 9W 4D 20L across 33 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.61 points per game from 33 outings (14W 11D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.65 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 70%.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 18W 10D 38L in their last 66 games (0.97 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 27W 22D 17L in their last 66 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.94 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Cambuur go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Cambuur
0
Draws
1
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and ADO Den Haag?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 5, ADO Den Haag have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when ADO Den Haag 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and ADO Den Haag?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 54%, ADO Den Haag 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Cambuur and 58% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 30%; Cambuur have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Cambuur's games and 67% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Cambuur's matches and 58% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Cambuur and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Cambuur 0-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.65 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.20 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.02 / defence 1.41 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.15 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 29% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 50%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 70%, ADO Den Haag 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.