Almere City FC 1-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Almere City FC and Willem II meet at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 January 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Willem II in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Almere City FC 0W, Willem II 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Willem II — key trading statistics (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 53% versus Willem II 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 64% | Willem II 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.71 xG and Willem II 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.200 / defence 1.007 | Willem II attack 1.136 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.345. Data: 57 Almere City FC games / 19 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 42% | Draw 23% | Willem II 35%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Willem II 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 42% | Draw 23% | Willem II 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Almere City FC 1.71 / Willem II 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.200 / def 1.007 | Willem II attack 1.136 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Willem II xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Willem II kick off?
Almere City FC vs Willem II kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Willem II?
Almere City FC 1 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Almere City FC vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Willem II part of?
Almere City FC vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 42% chance of winning, Willem II a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Almere City FC and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 1 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and Willem II in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Almere City FC's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.14x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
42%
2.38
23%
4.32
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.25
1.54
Willem II xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
6%
15.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.54 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC come into this having played 53 games, going 20W 9D 24L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.19 PPG from 53 outings (17W 12D 24L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.19 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Almere City FC's home form reads 11W 4D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (6W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.13 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Willem II in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 20W 9D 24L in their last 53 games (1.30 PPG), while Willem II have gone 17W 12D 24L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Willem II away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.37 PPG; Willem II away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Willem II have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
1
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Willem II?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Willem II have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Willem II 2-0 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, Willem II 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Almere City FC and 63% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Willem II in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 56% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Almere City FC's matches and 63% of Willem II's.
Do Almere City FC and Willem II tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Willem II in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out Willem II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Willem II 1-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.71 xG and Willem II 1.54 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Willem II landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.01 against Willem II attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 42% | Draw 23% | Willem II 35%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 64%, Willem II 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.30 PPG, Willem II 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.