Almere City FC 0-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almere City FC host VVV Venlo at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 1W 3D 6L at Yanmar Stadion — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 1.00 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Almere City FC, 1 for VVV Venlo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with VVV Venlo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 65% and VVV Venlo 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 65% | VVV Venlo 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.00 xG and VVV Venlo 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.794 / defence 1.310 | VVV Venlo attack 0.914 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.448. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Almere City FC games / 26 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 22% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 54%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | VVV Venlo 1.85. VVV Venlo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VVV Venlo are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 50% | VVV Venlo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 22% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Almere City FC 1.00 / VVV Venlo 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.794 / def 1.310 | VVV Venlo attack 0.914 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.74
VVV Venlo xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Almere City FC 0 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo part of?
Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 22% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Almere City FC and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
22%
4.63
24%
4.18
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.74
1.74
VVV Venlo xG
4.63
22%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
4%
26.23
20%
5.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.74 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 5W 8D 13L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo's form line: 10W 3D 13L from 26 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 0.88 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 0.75 PPG from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 4W 1D 7L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.38 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 5W 8D 13L in their last 26 games (0.88 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 10W 3D 13L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or VVV Venlo away?
VVV Venlo's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.75 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2022, when VVV Venlo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, VVV Venlo 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Almere City FC and 58% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 33% of games; VVV Venlo in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 42% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Almere City FC's matches and 58% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Almere City FC and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VVV Venlo edge out Almere City FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Almere City FC 0-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.00 xG and VVV Venlo 1.74 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.31 against VVV Venlo attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 22% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 54%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 65%, VVV Venlo 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.88 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.