Almere City FC 2-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Roda travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 September 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Almere City FC are significantly better at Yanmar Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Roda are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Almere City FC, 1 for Roda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 0–4 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Roda in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 54% versus Roda 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 67% | Roda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.23 xG and Roda 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.914 / defence 0.785 | Roda attack 1.254 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.373. Roda's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Roda have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Almere City FC games / 46 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 33% | Draw 28% | Roda 39%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Roda 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 20% | Roda 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 33% | Draw 28% | Roda 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Almere City FC 1.23 / Roda 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.914 / def 0.785 | Roda attack 1.254 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Roda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Roda xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Roda kick off?
Almere City FC vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Roda?
Almere City FC 2 - 1 Roda.
Where is Almere City FC vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Roda part of?
Almere City FC vs Roda is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 33% chance of winning, Roda a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Almere City FC and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Roda?
Record (2 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 0 | Roda 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Roda in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
33%
3.03
28%
3.56
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.58
1.35
Roda xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.35 for Roda, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 9D 23L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.72 PPG from 46 outings (21W 16D 9L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 7W 5D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (9W 9D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.96 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Roda in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 14W 9D 23L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Roda have gone 21W 16D 9L in their last 46 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.13 PPG; Roda away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Roda in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Roda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
0
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 3, Roda have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Almere City FC 1-2 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 39%, Roda 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Almere City FC) and 56% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 61% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Almere City FC's matches and 56% of Roda's.
Do Almere City FC and Roda tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Roda in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Roda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Roda 2-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.23 xG and Roda 1.35 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.79 against Roda attack 1.25 / defence 0.80, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 33% | Draw 28% | Roda 39%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 67%, Roda 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.