Almere City FC 3-5 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Almere City FC and Jong PSV U21 meet at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 0W 2D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Jong PSV U21 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 82% and Jong PSV U21 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 73% | Jong PSV U21 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.83 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.037 / defence 1.348 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.740 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.347. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Almere City FC games / 11 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 49% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 28%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Jong PSV U21 3.57. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 80% | Jong PSV U21 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 49% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Almere City FC 1.83 / Jong PSV U21 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.037 / def 1.348 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.740 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Jong PSV U21 xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21?
Almere City FC 3 - 5 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 49% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Almere City FC and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and Jong PSV U21 in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Jong PSV U21's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (0.74x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
49%
2.05
23%
4.38
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.34
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
5%
21.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.34 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 3D 6L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.00 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Almere City FC's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 0.40 points per game from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong PSV U21's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.27 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 on 10 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
0
Draws
4
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong PSV U21?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Jong PSV U21 2-3 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Jong PSV U21?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Almere City FC, 60% for Jong PSV U21 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Almere City FC and 60% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Almere City FC's games and 60% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Almere City FC's matches and 60% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Almere City FC and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Almere City FC 3-5 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.83 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.34 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.34 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.35 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.74 / defence 1.38, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 49% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 28%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 73%, Jong PSV U21 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.82 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.