Almere City FC 0-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as Almere City FC welcome Helmond Sport to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Almere City FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Almere City FC have won 2, Helmond Sport 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Helmond Sport winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 55% versus Helmond Sport 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 63% | Helmond Sport 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.09 xG and Helmond Sport 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.054 / defence 1.044 | Helmond Sport attack 0.736 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.247. Data: 62 Almere City FC games / 62 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 63% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 16%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Helmond Sport 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 80% | Helmond Sport 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 63% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Almere City FC 2.09 / Helmond Sport 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.054 / def 1.044 | Helmond Sport attack 0.736 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Helmond Sport xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Almere City FC 0 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport part of?
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 63% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Almere City FC and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Helmond Sport?
Record (3 meetings): Almere City FC 2W | Draws 0 | Helmond Sport 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Helmond Sport in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
63%
1.58
20%
4.95
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.05
0.96
Helmond Sport xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
12%
8.09
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
2%
49.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Almere City FC and 0.96 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 24W 11D 27L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 15W 11D 36L from 62 games, 0.90 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Almere City FC are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (12W 6D 13L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 6W 5D 20L from 31 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 0.97 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 24W 11D 27L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 15W 11D 36L in their last 62 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Helmond Sport away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.35 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Helmond Sport runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Helmond Sport have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2022, when Almere City FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
1
Draws
3
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Helmond Sport?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Helmond Sport have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Almere City FC 0-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Helmond Sport?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 52%, Helmond Sport 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Almere City FC) and 45% (Helmond Sport).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 42% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Almere City FC's recent games and 45% of Helmond Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almere City FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Almere City FC and Helmond Sport drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.09 xG and Helmond Sport 0.96 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Helmond Sport landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Helmond Sport attack 0.74 / defence 1.17, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 63% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 16%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 63%, Helmond Sport 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.