ADO Den Haag 2-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag host Telstar at Cars Jeans Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 21 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 6W 2D 2L at Cars Jeans Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — ADO Den Haag are significantly better at Cars Jeans Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Telstar have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Telstar away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: ADO Den Haag 1.50 PPG, Telstar 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ADO Den Haag register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Telstar in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for ADO Den Haag, 0 for Telstar and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with ADO Den Haag winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Telstar in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 55% versus Telstar 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 55% | Telstar 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.85 xG and Telstar 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.139 / defence 1.044 | Telstar attack 0.754 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.445. Telstar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing ADO Den Haag's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 ADO Den Haag games / 30 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 54% | Draw 23% | Telstar 23%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Telstar 4.35. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 60% | Telstar 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Cars Jeans Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 21 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 54% | Draw 23% | Telstar 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.85 / Telstar 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.139 / def 1.044 | Telstar attack 0.754 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Telstar xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Telstar kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 21 March 2022 at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?
ADO Den Haag 2 - 1 Telstar.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Telstar part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 54% chance of winning, Telstar a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Telstar?
Record (1 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 0 | Telstar 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Telstar in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Telstar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 1.14x the league average against Telstar's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.32
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
2.99
1.14
Telstar xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
4%
27.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.14 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 17W 5D 7L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Telstar's form line: 7W 10D 12L from 29 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Telstar.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 2.07 PPG from 14 outings (9W 2D 3L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 3W 6D 5L from 14 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.14 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Telstar in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 17W 5D 7L in their last 29 games (1.93 PPG), while Telstar have gone 7W 10D 12L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Telstar away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.07 PPG; Telstar away: 1.07 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Telstar in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and Telstar runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Telstar go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
ADO Den Haag
4
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Telstar?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 3, Telstar have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when ADO Den Haag 0-1 Telstar.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 57%, Telstar 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (ADO Den Haag) and 57% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Telstar in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of ADO Den Haag's games and 57% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ADO Den Haag's recent games and 57% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ADO Den Haag and Telstar tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Telstar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Telstar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Telstar 2-1 at Cars Jeans Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.85 xG and Telstar 1.14 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Telstar attack 0.75 / defence 1.27, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 54% | Draw 23% | Telstar 23%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 55%, Telstar 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.