Vicenza Virtus 3-3 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cittadella at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella meet at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 1D 7L this season (8 games, 0.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
Cittadella (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Cittadella are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vicenza Virtus 0W, Cittadella 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Cittadella winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Vicenza Virtus half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 47% versus Cittadella 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vicenza Virtus 47% | Cittadella 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 0.88 xG and Cittadella 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.859 / defence 1.405 | Cittadella attack 0.714 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.239. Data: 17 Vicenza Virtus games / 18 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 43%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Cittadella 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cittadella at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cittadella if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vicenza Virtus 50% | Cittadella 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Vicenza Virtus 0.88 / Cittadella 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.859 / def 1.405 | Cittadella attack 0.714 / def 1.074 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Cittadella xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella?
Vicenza Virtus 3 - 3 Cittadella.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 25% chance of winning, Cittadella a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 0 | Cittadella 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Cittadella (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vicenza Virtus's attack at 0.86x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.71x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
25%
3.97
31%
3.18
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.13
1.24
Cittadella xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.8 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.24 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vicenza Virtus's recent record stands at 2W 1D 14L from 17 games, a 0.41 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cittadella, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 5L across 17 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cittadella by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vicenza Virtus heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vicenza Virtus have managed 0W 1D 7L from 8 games — 0.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cittadella's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.18 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 1D 14L in their last 17 games (0.41 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Cittadella away?
Cittadella's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.12 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Cittadella in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Cittadella have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 3-3 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 50%, Cittadella 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Vicenza Virtus and 12% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Cittadella in 38%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 50% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 12% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 20, as Vicenza Virtus and Cittadella drew 3-3 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 0.88 xG and Cittadella 1.24 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cittadella outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.86 / defence 1.41 against Cittadella attack 0.71 / defence 1.07, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 43%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 47%, Cittadella 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Cittadella's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.