Venezia 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Venezia at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Venezia face Cremonese.

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Fixture Analysis

Venezia welcome Cremonese to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B (Promotion Play-offs - Final). Kick-off is Sunday 2 June 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Venezia have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Venezia have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Venezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Cremonese — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Venezia at 2.00 PPG versus Cremonese's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Venezia have won 1, Cremonese 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 May 2024, ended Venezia 0–0 Cremonese — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Venezia trading profile (last 79 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).

Cremonese trading profile (last 79 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 62% versus Cremonese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 60% | Cremonese 49%). Note also that Cremonese surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.56 xG and Cremonese 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.378 / defence 1.101 | Cremonese attack 0.834 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.166. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.378 — their 1.56 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 76 games and Cremonese's last 38.

Result probabilities: Venezia 47% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 24%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.14 | Draw 3.47 | Cremonese 4.10. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 70% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 50% (last 10 away games).

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