Venezia 2-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Carrarese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Carrarese (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Venezia's 2.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Carrarese's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Venezia 0W, Carrarese 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with Carrarese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 52% versus Carrarese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 49% | Carrarese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.51 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.365 / defence 0.830 | Carrarese attack 1.109 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.036. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Venezia games / 59 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 71% | Draw 17% | Carrarese 12%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Carrarese 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 40% | Carrarese 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 71% | Draw 17% | Carrarese 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 57% | xG Venezia 2.51 / Carrarese 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.365 / def 0.830 | Carrarese attack 1.109 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Venezia (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Carrarese xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Carrarese kick off?
Venezia vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Carrarese?
Venezia 2 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Venezia vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Carrarese part of?
Venezia vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 71% chance of winning, Carrarese a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Venezia and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Carrarese?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Venezia and Carrarese in?
Venezia (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Carrarese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Venezia's attack at 1.36x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 2.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (1.11x) against Venezia's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.94
12%
8.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.46
0.95
Carrarese xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.94
17%
Draw
8.23
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
8%
12.27
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
1%
100.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Venezia and 0.95 for Carrarese, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Carrarese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Venezia's recent record stands at 18W 19D 22L from 59 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 18W 20D 21L across 59 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Venezia against 1.25 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 14W 5D 10L from 29 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 3W 11D 15L across 29 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.17 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 18W 19D 22L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 18W 20D 21L in their last 59 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Carrarese away?
Venezia's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.62 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Venezia or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Carrarese in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Venezia
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Venezia 2-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 41%, Carrarese 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Venezia) and 55% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Venezia have failed to score in 31% of games; Carrarese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Venezia's recent matches and 66% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Venezia's recent games and 55% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Carrarese tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Carrarese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Carrarese 2-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.51 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.36 / defence 0.83 against Carrarese attack 1.11 / defence 1.44, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 71% | Draw 17% | Carrarese 12%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 49%, Carrarese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.24 PPG, Carrarese 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.