Ternana 3-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Parma travel to Stadio Libero Liberati to take on Ternana. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 September 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 outings — a 0.25 PPG return. Last five: L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma — All Games: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Parma's 1.75 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Ternana's 0.25 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Parma trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ternana 75% and Parma 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 50% | Parma 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.95 xG and Parma 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.782 / defence 1.408 | Parma attack 1.191 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.404. Ternana's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Ternana games / 4 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 12% | Draw 21% | Parma 67%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 8.33 | Draw 4.76 | Parma 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Parma (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 75% | Parma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 12% | Draw 21% | Parma 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Ternana 0.95 / Parma 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.782 / def 1.408 | Parma attack 1.191 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Parma (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
2.35
Parma xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Parma kick off?
Ternana vs Parma kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Parma?
Ternana 3 - 1 Parma.
Where is Ternana vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Parma part of?
Ternana vs Parma is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 12% chance of winning, Parma a 67% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ternana and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Parma in?
Ternana (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D. Parma (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ternana's attack at 0.78x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 2.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
12%
8.35
21%
4.78
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Ternana xG
Total xG
3.30
2.35
Parma xG
8.35
12%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
9%
10.53
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
1%
87.88
26%
3.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Ternana and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ternana and 2.35 for Parma, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Ternana have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 0W 1D 3L record — L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ternana.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Parma in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Parma in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Parma have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Ternana or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Parma in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Parma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ternana's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ternana
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 3, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Ternana 1-3 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Parma?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 75%, Parma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ternana and 75% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Parma in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Ternana's games and 50% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ternana vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ternana's matches and 75% of Parma's.
Do Ternana and Parma tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Parma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Parma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Parma 3-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.95 xG and Parma 2.35 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ternana beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Parma landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.78 / defence 1.41 against Parma attack 1.19 / defence 1.11, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 12% | Draw 21% | Parma 67%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Ternana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 50%, Parma 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Ternana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ternana scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Parma managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.