Ternana 1-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ternana at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Cittadella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Ternana (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 3W 0D 3L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Cittadella have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella's away record: 2W 0D 3L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Ternana, 1.30 for Cittadella — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Cittadella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 58% versus Cittadella 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 58% | Cittadella 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.45 xG and Cittadella 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.228 / defence 1.222 | Cittadella attack 0.699 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.142. Data: 12 Ternana games / 12 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 47% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 24%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Cittadella 4.17. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 50% | Cittadella 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 47% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Ternana 1.45 / Cittadella 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.228 / def 1.222 | Cittadella attack 0.699 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Ternana (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cittadella xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Cittadella kick off?
Ternana vs Cittadella kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Cittadella?
Ternana 1 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Ternana vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Cittadella part of?
Ternana vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 47% chance of winning, Cittadella a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ternana and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cittadella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Cittadella in?
Ternana (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Cittadella (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ternana's attack rating (1.23) and Cittadella's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.70x) against Ternana's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.46
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.43
0.98
Cittadella xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
6%
17.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ternana and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ternana and 0.98 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana come into this having played 12 games, going 5W 1D 6L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (6W 1D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Ternana against 1.58 for Cittadella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ternana's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Ternana are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.08 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 6W 1D 5L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Cittadella away?
Ternana's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.80 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Ternana or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Cittadella in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ternana
2
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cittadella?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 3, Cittadella have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Ternana 3-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Cittadella?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 60%, Cittadella 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Ternana) and 20% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cittadella in 40%; Cittadella in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ternana's recent matches and 20% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Ternana's recent games and 20% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Cittadella tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana and Cittadella share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 13, as Ternana and Cittadella drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.45 xG and Cittadella 0.98 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.23 / defence 1.22 against Cittadella attack 0.70 / defence 1.17, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 47% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 24%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 58%, Cittadella 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cittadella's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.33 PPG, Cittadella 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.