Ternana 1-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Libero Liberati to face Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 7 December 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ternana have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati.
Cagliari's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Ternana's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ternana 60% and Cagliari 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 53% | Cagliari 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.21 xG and Cagliari 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.879 / defence 0.788 | Cagliari attack 0.978 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.121. Ternana's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Ternana games / 15 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 42% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 25%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Cagliari 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 40% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Dec 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 42% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Ternana 1.21 / Cagliari 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.879 / def 0.788 | Cagliari attack 0.978 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Ternana (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cagliari xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Cagliari kick off?
Ternana vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 7 December 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Cagliari?
Ternana 1 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Ternana vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Cagliari part of?
Ternana vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 42% chance of winning, Cagliari a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ternana and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Cagliari in?
Ternana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.88) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.98x) against Ternana's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
42%
2.37
33%
3.03
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.07
0.86
Cagliari xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ternana and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Ternana and 0.86 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana come into this having played 53 games, going 21W 13D 19L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.92 PPG from 53 outings (10W 19D 24L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ternana's home form reads 12W 5D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (4W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.96 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Cagliari in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 21W 13D 19L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 10W 19D 24L in their last 53 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Cagliari away?
Ternana's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.58 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Ternana or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cagliari in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ternana
0
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Cagliari have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when Cagliari 2-1 Ternana.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 38%, Cagliari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ternana) and 46% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cagliari in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ternana's recent matches and 50% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ternana's recent games and 46% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Cagliari tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ternana edge out Cagliari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Cagliari 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.21 xG and Cagliari 0.86 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cagliari landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.88 / defence 0.79 against Cagliari attack 0.98 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 42% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 25%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 53%, Cagliari 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.