Sudtirol 1-0 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sudtirol face Feralpisalo.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Feralpisalo in Serie B (matchday 20). Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Sudtirol (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sudtirol are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Feralpisalo have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Feralpisalo away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Sudtirol, 0.90 for Feralpisalo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sudtirol's last 10 home games and Feralpisalo's last 10 away games) — Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Feralpisalo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Sudtirol edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Sudtirol 2–0 Feralpisalo — a Sudtirol win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sudtirol 68% and Feralpisalo 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 58% | Feralpisalo 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.67 xG and Feralpisalo 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.984 / defence 1.174 | Feralpisalo attack 0.886 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.188. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.357 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sudtirol's projected output up. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 57 games and Feralpisalo's last 19.

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 46% | Draw 26% | Feralpisalo 27%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.15 | Draw 3.78 | Feralpisalo 3.69. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sudtirol's last 10 home games and Feralpisalo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 60% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 60% (last 10 away games).

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