Spezia 1-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Sampdoria at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Spezia) versus 1.00 (Sampdoria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spezia register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Sampdoria in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Spezia, 2 for Sampdoria and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Spezia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 50% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spezia 40% | Sampdoria 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.31 xG and Sampdoria 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.800 / defence 1.252 | Sampdoria attack 0.936 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.066. Data: 51 Spezia games / 51 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 37% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 34%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Sampdoria 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 80% | Sampdoria 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 37% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Spezia 1.31 / Sampdoria 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.800 / def 1.252 | Sampdoria attack 0.936 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Spezia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sampdoria xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Spezia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Spezia 1 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Spezia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Sampdoria part of?
Spezia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 37% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Spezia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Record (8 meetings): Spezia 3W | Draws 3 | Sampdoria 2W.
What form are Spezia and Sampdoria in?
Spezia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.80x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
37%
2.74
30%
3.35
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.56
1.25
Sampdoria xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Spezia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Spezia and 1.25 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 19W 19D 14L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria's form line: 11W 21D 20L from 52 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Spezia are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 2W 12D 11L from 25 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.00 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 19W 19D 14L in their last 52 games (1.46 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 11W 21D 20L in their last 52 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Sampdoria away?
Spezia's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.48 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Spezia or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Spezia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spezia
3
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sampdoria?
From 10 meetings on record, Spezia have won 4, Sampdoria have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spezia at 56%, Sampdoria at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Spezia) and 56% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Spezia's games and 76% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Spezia's recent games and 56% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Sampdoria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Sampdoria 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.31 xG and Sampdoria 1.25 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.80 / defence 1.25 against Sampdoria attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 37% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 34%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 40%, Sampdoria 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sampdoria's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.