Spezia 1-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Reggiana at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spezia at Stadio Alberto Picco this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Reggiana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Spezia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Spezia have won 0, Reggiana 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 53% versus Reggiana 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 47% | Reggiana 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.30 xG and Reggiana 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.261 / defence 1.085 | Reggiana attack 0.863 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.128. Spezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 1.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Spezia games / 45 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 40% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 28%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Reggiana 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 70% | Reggiana 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 40% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Spezia 1.30 / Reggiana 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.261 / def 1.085 | Reggiana attack 0.863 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Spezia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Reggiana xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Reggiana kick off?
Spezia vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Reggiana?
Spezia 1 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Spezia vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Reggiana part of?
Spezia vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 40% chance of winning, Reggiana a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Spezia and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Reggiana?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 1 | Reggiana 1W.
What form are Spezia and Reggiana in?
Spezia (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Reggiana (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spezia's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
40%
2.51
32%
3.10
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.36
1.06
Reggiana xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
8%
13.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Spezia and 1.06 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 12W 21D 12L from 45 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reggiana, meanwhile, have gone 12W 20D 13L across 45 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Reggiana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.27 PPG, Reggiana on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 9W 8D 5L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggiana's away record stands at 8W 7D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Early Season
Reggiana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 12W 21D 12L in their last 45 games (1.27 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 12W 20D 13L in their last 45 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Reggiana away?
Spezia's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.59 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Spezia or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Reggiana in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Reggiana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spezia's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
2
Draws
3
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Reggiana?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Reggiana have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Spezia 0-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 54%, Reggiana 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Spezia) and 46% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 36%; Spezia have failed to score in 36% of games; Reggiana in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Spezia's recent matches and 41% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Spezia's recent games and 46% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Reggiana tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Reggiana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Reggiana 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.30 xG and Reggiana 1.06 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.26 / defence 1.08 against Reggiana attack 0.86 / defence 0.82, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 40% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 28%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 47%, Reggiana 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.27 PPG, Reggiana 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.