Spezia 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Parma at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Parma meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Spezia (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Picco this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Parma have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Parma have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Parma are 1.10 PPG clear of Spezia in recent Serie B fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 45% versus Parma 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 51% | Parma 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.92 xG and Parma 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.703 / defence 1.006 | Parma attack 1.461 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.179. Spezia's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Parma have an above-average attack strength of 1.461 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Spezia games / 52 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 18% | Draw 28% | Parma 54%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Parma 1.85. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 30% | Parma 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 18% | Draw 28% | Parma 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Spezia 0.92 / Parma 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.703 / def 1.006 | Parma attack 1.461 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Parma (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Parma xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Parma kick off?
Spezia vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Parma?
Spezia 0 - 1 Parma.
Where is Spezia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Parma part of?
Spezia vs Parma is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 18% chance of winning, Parma a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spezia and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Parma in?
Spezia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Parma (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.70) and Parma's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.46x) against Spezia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
18%
5.63
28%
3.58
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.66
1.73
Parma xG
5.63
18%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
3%
31.81
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.2 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Spezia and 1.73 for Parma, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia's recent record stands at 7W 20D 26L from 53 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 14L across 53 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 4W 12D 10L from 26 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 10W 8D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Parma in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 7W 20D 26L in their last 53 games (0.77 PPG), while Parma have gone 26W 13D 14L in their last 53 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.92 PPG; Parma away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Spezia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Parma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spezia
0
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Parma?
From 2 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Parma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Parma 2-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 46%, Parma 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spezia) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 46% of games; Parma in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Spezia's recent matches and 54% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Spezia's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Parma tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Parma in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Spezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Spezia 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.92 xG and Parma 1.73 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Spezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.70 / defence 1.01 against Parma attack 1.46 / defence 1.20, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 18% | Draw 28% | Parma 54%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 51%, Parma 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.