Spezia 0-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Spezia take on Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Cosenza meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Spezia's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Spezia at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cosenza have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cosenza away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Cosenza arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 46% versus Cosenza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 50% | Cosenza 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Spezia surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while Cosenza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.70 xG and Cosenza 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.630 / defence 0.986 | Cosenza attack 0.785 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.178. Spezia's attack rating of 0.630 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Cosenza's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Spezia's last 9 games and Cosenza's last 48.
Result probabilities: Spezia 24% | Draw 40% | Cosenza 36%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 4.18 | Draw 2.51 | Cosenza 2.76. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Spezia's lower xG of 0.70 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 78% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Spezia's last 10 home games and Cosenza's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spezia 30% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 24% | Draw 40% | Cosenza 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% (Under 78%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG Spezia 0.70 / Cosenza 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.630 / def 0.986 | Cosenza attack 0.785 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cosenza xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Cosenza kick off?
Spezia vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Cosenza?
Spezia 0 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Spezia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Cosenza part of?
Spezia vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 11) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 24% chance of winning, Cosenza a 36% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Spezia and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will Spezia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (78%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Spezia's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.79x) against Spezia's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 9 games and Cosenza's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.18
40%
2.51
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Spezia xG
Total xG
1.61
0.91
Cosenza xG
4.18
24%
Home win
2.51
40%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 18.3 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Spezia and 0.91 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spezia's recent record stands at 7W 17D 24L from 48 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 20L across 48 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Spezia against 1.08 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 4W 10D 10L from their last 24 home games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 3W 8D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.90 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
Spezia (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Spezia vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 7W 17D 24L in their last 48 games (0.79 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 12W 16D 20L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Cosenza away?
Spezia's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.92 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Spezia and Cosenza, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
3
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cosenza?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 1, Cosenza have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2025: Spezia 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Cosenza?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 46%, Cosenza 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spezia) and 33% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 46% of games; Cosenza in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Spezia's recent matches and 46% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Spezia's recent games and 33% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Cosenza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Spezia's recent matches and 58% of Cosenza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spezia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Cosenza finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.70 xG and Cosenza 0.91 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cosenza landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.63 / defence 0.99 against Cosenza attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 9/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 24% | Draw 40% | Cosenza 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 50%, Cosenza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.79 PPG, Cosenza 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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