Spal 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spal host Sudtirol at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Spal — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Paolo Mazza this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spal at 1.30 PPG versus Sudtirol's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Spal in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 40% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spal 40% | Sudtirol 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.75 xG and Sudtirol 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.258 / defence 0.980 | Sudtirol attack 0.901 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.111. Spal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Spal games / 10 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 55% | Draw 24% | Sudtirol 21%. Fair-value odds: Spal 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Sudtirol 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Spal (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spal at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Spal 40% | Sudtirol 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 55% | Draw 24% | Sudtirol 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Spal 1.75 / Sudtirol 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.258 / def 0.980 | Sudtirol attack 0.901 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Spal (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Spal xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sudtirol xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Sudtirol kick off?
Spal vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Sudtirol?
Spal 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Spal vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Sudtirol part of?
Spal vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 55% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spal and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spal and Sudtirol in?
Spal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Spal's attack rating (1.26) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.25
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Spal xG
Total xG
2.73
0.98
Sudtirol xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
4%
27.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Spal and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Spal and 0.98 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Sudtirol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Spal have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 3W 4D 3L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spal on 1.30 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Spal have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Spal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Spal are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.10 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Spal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Sudtirol away?
Spal's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.80 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Spal or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spal and Sudtirol runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spal
1
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Sudtirol?
From 2 meetings on record, Spal have won 0, Sudtirol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Sudtirol 2-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Spal 20% BTTS, Sudtirol 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Spal) and 40% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Spal keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Sudtirol in 40%; Sudtirol in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Spal's recent matches and 20% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spal vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Spal's recent games and 40% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spal and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal and Sudtirol finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.75 xG and Sudtirol 0.98 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.26 / defence 0.98 against Sudtirol attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 55% | Draw 24% | Sudtirol 21%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 40%, Sudtirol 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sudtirol's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.30 PPG, Sudtirol 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.