Spal 1-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spal vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Benevento travel to Stadio Paolo Mazza to take on Spal. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 January 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Spal — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spal have posted 2W 3D 4L at Stadio Paolo Mazza — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benevento — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Spal trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Benevento trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 56% versus Benevento 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 50% | Benevento 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.08 xG and Benevento 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.079 / defence 1.465 | Benevento attack 0.928 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 0.992 / away 1.269. Data: 18 Spal games / 18 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 23% | Draw 25% | Benevento 52%. Fair-value odds: Spal 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Benevento 1.92. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spal 78% | Benevento 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 23% | Draw 25% | Benevento 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Spal 1.08 / Benevento 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.079 / def 1.465 | Benevento attack 0.928 / def 1.006 | league avg home 0.992 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Benevento (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Benevento xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Benevento kick off?
Spal vs Benevento kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Benevento?
Spal 1 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Spal vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Benevento part of?
Spal vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 23% chance of winning, Benevento a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Spal and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spal and Benevento in?
Spal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Benevento (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spal's attack at 1.08x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
23%
4.37
25%
3.94
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Spal xG
Total xG
2.80
1.73
Benevento xG
4.37
23%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
4%
24.58
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Spal and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Spal and 1.73 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spal come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 5D 8L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Spal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spal's home form reads 1W 3D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spal are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.78 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Benevento in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 games (1.11 PPG), while Benevento have gone 10W 4D 4L in their last 18 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 0.75 PPG; Benevento away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Spal or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Benevento in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spal and Benevento runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spal's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Spal
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 2, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Benevento 1-3 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Benevento?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 88%, Benevento 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Spal) and 12% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Benevento in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Spal's games and 38% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Spal's recent games and 12% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Benevento tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Benevento in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spal and Benevento share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 19, as Spal and Benevento drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.08 xG and Benevento 1.73 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.08 / defence 1.47 against Benevento attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 23% | Draw 25% | Benevento 52%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 50%, Benevento 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Benevento's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spal (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.