Sampdoria vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 38 as Sampdoria welcome Pisa to Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pisa are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Pisa, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Sampdoria.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Pisa winning.
It is worth noting that Pisa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Pisa in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 54% versus Pisa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 43% | Pisa 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.22 xG and Pisa 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.991 / defence 1.016 | Pisa attack 1.255 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Pisa have an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Sampdoria games / 7 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 28% | Draw 27% | Pisa 46%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Pisa 2.17. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 40% | Pisa 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 28% | Draw 27% | Pisa 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sampdoria 1.22 / Pisa 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.991 / def 1.016 | Pisa attack 1.255 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Pisa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Pisa xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Pisa kick off?
Sampdoria vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Pisa part of?
Sampdoria vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 28% chance of winning, Pisa a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sampdoria and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Pisa?
Record (4 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 4W.
What form are Sampdoria and Pisa in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.99) and Pisa's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
28%
3.61
27%
3.75
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.84
1.62
Pisa xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
5%
18.25
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.62 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sampdoria come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 12D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 0.68 PPG from 44 outings (6W 12D 26L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sampdoria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Pisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sampdoria's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (2W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.89 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Pisa in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Pisa have gone 6W 12D 26L in their last 44 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Pisa away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.67 PPG; Pisa away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pisa have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
0
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Pisa have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Sampdoria 0-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 48%, Pisa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sampdoria) and 76% (Pisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 29% of games; Pisa in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 48% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Sampdoria's matches and 76% of Pisa's.
Do Sampdoria and Pisa tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pisa in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.