Sampdoria 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Brescia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Brescia meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Sampdoria have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Brescia (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Brescia are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Brescia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for Brescia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Brescia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Brescia — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 52% versus Brescia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sampdoria 47% | Brescia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.05 xG and Brescia 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.864 / defence 1.290 | Brescia attack 0.889 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.227. Data: 24 Sampdoria games / 62 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 27% | Draw 29% | Brescia 44%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Brescia 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 60% | Brescia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 27% | Draw 29% | Brescia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Sampdoria 1.05 / Brescia 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.864 / def 1.290 | Brescia attack 0.889 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Brescia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Brescia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Brescia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Brescia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Brescia?
Sampdoria 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Brescia part of?
Sampdoria vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 27% chance of winning, Brescia a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sampdoria and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 0 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Brescia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Brescia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.86x the league average against Brescia's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.89x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
27%
3.70
29%
3.46
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.46
1.41
Brescia xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
7%
15.11
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.41 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 11W 15D 36L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 16W 22D 24L from 62 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.13 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 0.77 PPG from 31 outings (5W 9D 17L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 7W 11D 13L from 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 0.97 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Brescia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 11W 15D 36L in their last 62 games (0.77 PPG), while Brescia have gone 16W 22D 24L in their last 62 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.77 PPG; Brescia away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
2
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Brescia?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Brescia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Brescia 1-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 48%, Brescia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sampdoria) and 39% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 42% of games; Brescia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 52% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sampdoria's recent games and 39% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Brescia tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Brescia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria and Brescia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.05 xG and Brescia 1.41 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.86 / defence 1.29 against Brescia attack 0.89 / defence 0.90, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 27% | Draw 29% | Brescia 44%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 47%, Brescia 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.77 PPG, Brescia 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.